Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
In 1947, many foreigners expected India to break up into
fragments. Cleavages of language, region and religion seemed enough
to doom unity. India’s greatest achievement—owing a
great debt to Nehru- has been to survive and thrive as a unified
country (notwithstanding breakaway movements in Kashmir and
Bollywood was another great unifier. Hindi films and songsters
like Lata Mangeshkar found ready audiences in non-Hindi states.
Tamil Nadu had a violent anti-Hindi agitation in 1965, but later
Tamil stars like Rajnikant and Kamalahasan became big Hindi film
names. Western (Nana Patekar) and Bengali stars (Uttam Kumar,
Sharmila Tagore) rose high in Bollywood, creating a unifying
A Trade Called Unity
Discourses on Indian unity generally leave out transport and
trade. But this year’s Economic Survey reveals that both
internal travel and internal trade are much higher than believed
earlier, high by global standards, and will rise further after the
implementation of GST (Goods and Services Tax). Thus migrants,
manufacturers and traders have bound India together too.
These laws must be
amended if India is truly to become one market, and reap the full
economic and political gains of a single market.
A decade ago, Ejaz Haider, a top Pakistani editor, asserted
while conversing with me that India’s unity was not a
political but economic success, thanks to its huge single market.
Wrong, I replied- India had a thousand inter-state and inter-city
barriers, and was not a single market at all. Goods from Delhi paid
entry tax to enter Maharashtra and octroi to enter Mumbai, and the
combined tax incidence could be 15%, as high as customs duty on
some imported goods. India was a grieviously splintered market, not
a unified one.
With the introduction of GST, politicians claim we will at last
have “One India, one market, one tax rate.”
That’s not quite right: GST excludes real estate, alcohol,
tobacco and petroleum products, so a big chunk of the economy will
face state tax barriers. More important, states often invoke the
Essential Commodities Act to ban the movement of politically
sensitive goods. Still, GST will be a game changer.
The Economic Survey reveals that India enjoyed high inter-state
movement of goods and people even before GST. New estimates using
railway data show that annual work-related migration is 9 million,
almost double the earlier estimate.
Farmers in the north-west and south complain that migrant
agricultural labour has plummeted. Despite this, overall migration
(especially to urban areas) is vibrant. Rural-urban migration
within states has accelerated. North-easterners, once mistaken for
Chinese, are now a visible part of the workforce in big cities. A
pan-Indian workforce has emerged.
New data from the Goods and Services Tax Network suggest that
inter-state exchanges of manufactured goods amount to at least 54%
of GDP. Almost half of this is the exchange within branches of the
same firms, an astonishingly high figure.
It shows that corporations have help bind India together through
manufacturing and trading linkages that were minimal at
independence. This has boosted both economic growth and political
India’s internal trade/GDP ratio of 54% leaves out agricultural
goods, which are also massively transported across India. So 54% is
a gross under-estimate. Even this underestimate implies that
India’s internal trade is 1.7 times its foreign trade. That
compares well with other countries at the same economic stage.
A Fuel Called Trimurti
Large countries naturally have a higher ratio of internal trade
to GDP than small ones. India’s 54% ratio (remember, this estimate
excludes farm products) is much less than the USA’s 78% or China’s
74%. But is far more than the 20% of the European Union, which was
formed specifically to create single market. Indonesia, another
large developing country, has internal trade of only 12% of GDP.
Canada, bigger in area than the USA, has a 20% ratio.
However, a caveat is in order. India has a crazy patchwork of
area-based tax breaks that induce corporate to move to Sikkim or
Himachal Pradesh, not for commercial reasons but tax arbitrage.
This artificially increases inter-state trade. Finance Minister
Jaitley has promised to phase out area-based tax breaks,
eliminating this distortion.
Economists sing praises of gains from international trade.
Similar gains flow from internal trade in a large country like
India, such as specialisation, scale economies, de-risking and
experimentation in different states to create innovative solutions.
Improved connectivity is an important reason for India’s faster
growth since 2000.
Rural roads have expanded enormously, as have the arterial
national highways. Telecom has penetrated most rural areas (though
broadband still lags behind). Finally, rural electrification has
now reached all but a few parts of the country, even though its
quality is spotty.
Roads, telecom and electricity constitute a Trimurti of
connectivity that has accelerated India’s GDP growth since 2000.
The Trimurti has facilitated the creation of new production
centres, and the transport of that production across India.
Yet much more needs to be done. The Essential Commodities is a
serious barrier to internal trade, especially of agricultural
commodities. So the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act
that obliges farmers to sell only through local mandis. These laws
must be amended if India is truly to become one market, and reap
the full economic and political gains of a single market.
S. Anklesaria Aiyar is a research fellow at the Cato Institute.